Who is a Better U.S. Recession Suspect: the M2 Money Supply or the Inflation Rate?

Former JPMORGAN Chase, Global Chief Economist, PH.D in Economics

Suspect Number One: Reducing the U.S. Inflation Rate

Economy watchers keep telling us that if the Federal Reserve slows the growth in the inflation rate too quickly, the U.S. economy will collapse and enter a recession.  Watching the Consumer Price Index (CPI) before a recession revealed little support for this view.   In fact, before the start of April …